Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +260 JKST -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +16 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -5.3 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -5.6 (-10.4) | 140.0 (+38.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -5.2 (-10.8) | 139.2 (+38.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -5.5 (-10.5) | 140.8 (+37.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -6.4 (-9.6) | 140.9 (+37.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | JKST 85 – 77 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | JKST 66 – 62 MVSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JKST 92 – 44 MVSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JKST 68 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | JKST 77 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Away | 1-18 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -25.8 (#365) | -17.5 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.90 (#365) | -1.64 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.45 (#365) | -2.32 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#364) | 0.437 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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