Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | JKST -575 MVSU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | JKST -11.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -11.1 (-3.1) | 144.7 (+17.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -9.8 (-1.8) | 143.6 (+18.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -9.5 (-1.5) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -9.0 (-1.0) | 147.1 (+14.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | JKST 97 – 81 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | JKST 66 – 62 MVSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JKST 92 – 44 MVSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JKST 68 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | JKST 77 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 4-15 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -17.1 (#356) | -25.2 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#307) | -3.75 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#321) | -5.51 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#275) | 0.345 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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