Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -600 LONG +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -12.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -10.7 (-5.7) | 150.2 (+2.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.2 (-5.2) | 150.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -10.2 (-5.2) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -10.8 (-5.8) | 150.5 (+2.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LONG 69 – 56 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | -6.9 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#126) | -1.41 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#140) | -1.76 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#69) | 0.427 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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