Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | LONG +300 WIN -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -9.6 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -7.6 (+19.6) | 157.3 (-5.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.3 (+19.3) | 156.0 (-4.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.5 (+20.5) | 157.5 (-5.5) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.8 (+19.8) | 157.1 (-5.1) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LONG 69 – 56 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#316) | 3.2 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#321) | -0.20 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#309) | -0.13 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#336) | 0.506 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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