Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -111 LONG -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -1.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.3 (-12.7) | 142.7 (-17.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -0.5 (-13.5) | 143.1 (-18.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.1 (-13.1) | 143.4 (-18.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.6 (-13.6) | 145.4 (-20.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | -0.8 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#198) | -0.44 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#176) | -0.58 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#193) | 0.482 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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