Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -195 LONG +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -1.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -2.4 (+6.6) | 155.6 (+11.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.9 (+6.1) | 157.5 (+9.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -3.6 (+5.4) | 156.8 (+10.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.7 (+6.3) | 157.2 (+9.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LONG 69 – 56 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#172) | -2.5 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#137) | -0.24 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | -0.37 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.495 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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