Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -150 LONG +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +19 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -3.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.7 (+17.3) | 153.8 (+17.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.7 (+17.3) | 152.4 (+18.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.2 (+16.8) | 152.2 (+18.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.9 (+17.1) | 154.2 (+16.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LONG 69 – 56 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#199) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#189) | 0.04 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#196) | 0.02 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#182) | 0.483 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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