Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -120 WIN +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +26 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -3.3 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.5 (-28.5) | 161.3 (-17.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.7 (-28.7) | 160.8 (-16.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.1 (-28.1) | 159.5 (-15.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.9 (-27.9) | 162.2 (-18.2) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LONG 69 – 56 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#194) | -2.0 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#190) | 0.19 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#190) | 0.06 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#192) | 0.521 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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