Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -1600 WIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -16.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -13.4 (+13.6) | 147.7 (-8.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -12.9 (+14.1) | 147.0 (-8.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -13.5 (+13.5) | 149.3 (-10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -13.1 (+13.9) | 150.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | TNST 90 – 68 WIU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | TNST 87 – 69 WIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TNST 72 – 52 WIU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | WIU 61 – 59 TNST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | WIU 68 – 61 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 1-19 |
| Home | 10-2 | 4-11 |
| Away | 10-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#238) | -18.3 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#201) | -3.62 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#222) | -4.72 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#152) | 0.359 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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