Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UL -142 CMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UL -1.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -0.5 (+5.5) | 133.2 (+31.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CMU -0.3 (+5.3) | 130.8 (+34.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UL -0.6 (+4.4) | 131.3 (+33.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.3 (+4.7) | 131.9 (+33.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#312) | -8.6 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#291) | -1.47 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#297) | -1.58 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#286) | 0.436 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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