Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +425 LOU -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -8.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.2 (+1.2) | 156.2 (+11.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.3 (-1.7) | 159.6 (+8.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.3 (-0.7) | 153.0 (+15.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -7.1 (-0.9) | 154.3 (+13.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | LOU 73 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 20.8 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#88) | 2.76 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#91) | 3.68 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#94) | 0.605 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.