Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -475 LOU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +22 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -10.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -10.5 (+11.5) | 144.8 (+31.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -8.0 (+14.0) | 145.8 (+30.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -10.3 (+11.7) | 142.6 (+33.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -10.2 (+11.8) | 143.3 (+32.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | LOU 73 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#36) | 3.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#51) | 0.49 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#51) | 0.62 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#85) | 0.511 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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