Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -0.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.4 (+3.6) | 148.7 (-6.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.9 (+1.1) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -1.0 (+5.0) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.3 (+4.3) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 18-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#85) | 9.7 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#90) | 3.23 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#90) | 4.68 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#62) | 0.557 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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