Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +350 WAKE -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -11.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -10.2 (+2.2) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -11.4 (+3.4) | 142.4 (+9.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -10.4 (+2.4) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -9.6 (+1.6) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | LOU 73 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 4-13 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#337) | 5.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#351) | 1.89 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#331) | 2.46 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#322) | 0.608 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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