Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -2000 LOU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -17.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -15.1 (+9.9) | 154.1 (+0.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -16.6 (+8.4) | 152.7 (+2.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -14.0 (+11.0) | 151.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -14.6 (+10.4) | 153.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 29, 2025 | LOU 72 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | LOU 73 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-2 | 7-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#43) | -2.3 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#51) | -1.05 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#43) | -1.13 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#47) | 0.450 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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