Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -450 WAKE +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -12.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -11.0 (+2.0) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.2 (+3.8) | 142.7 (-11.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -11.6 (+1.4) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -10.3 (+2.7) | 140.5 (-9.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LOU 88 – 80 WAKE |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAKE 90 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | WAKE 80 – 72 LOU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | WAKE 99 – 77 LOU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | LOU 73 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#26) | 6.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#20) | 2.50 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#22) | 2.91 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#13) | 0.578 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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