Betting Lines
| Spread | KENT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USM +180 KENT -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | KENT -3.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KENT -4.9 (+5.9) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KENT -2.2 (+3.2) | 148.5 (-17.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KENT -2.6 (+3.6) | 150.9 (-19.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KENT -1.8 (+2.8) | 152.7 (-21.7) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 82.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#240) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#224) | 1.26 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#230) | 1.33 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#210) | 0.584 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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