Betting Lines
| Spread | CHSO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -105 CHSO -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -0.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+40.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHSO -0.2 (+6.2) | 153.2 (+40.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.6 (+5.4) | 144.7 (+49.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.4 (+5.6) | 146.0 (+48.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.0 (+5.0) | 149.8 (+44.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | UPST 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UPST 79 – 69 CHSO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CHSO 82 – 75 UPST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | CHSO 63 – 60 UPST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | CHSO 77 – 70 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#273) | -4.2 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#303) | -1.38 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#309) | -1.70 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#269) | 0.439 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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