Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CHSO +100 UPST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CHSO -0.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.7 (+7.7) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.8 (+7.8) | 141.2 (+5.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHSO -0.1 (+6.9) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.4 (+7.4) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UPST 100 – 94 CHSO |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UPST 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UPST 79 – 69 CHSO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CHSO 82 – 75 UPST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | CHSO 63 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHSO | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#335) | -7.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#343) | -1.36 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#340) | -1.86 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#322) | 0.449 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHSO | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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