Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -550 UNH +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -7.2 (+15.8) | 138.7 (-1.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.4 (+14.6) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -8.5 (+14.5) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -6.9 (+16.1) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVM 80 – 61 UNH |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UVM 64 – 57 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UVM 79 – 59 UNH |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UVM 60 – 40 UNH |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UVM 66 – 59 UNH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#226) | -10.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | -1.97 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#216) | -2.51 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#219) | 0.433 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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