Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +220 DUKE -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.4 (+5.4) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.4 (+7.4) | 141.1 (-2.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.9 (+6.9) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.3 (+8.3) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 – 79 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#28) | 26.8 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#20) | 4.96 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#26) | 6.96 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#12) | 0.679 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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