Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1000 UNC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -15.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.0 (+4.0) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.1 (+3.9) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.5 (+3.5) | 149.8 (+7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.3 (+4.7) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 – 79 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 25.1 (#3) | 13.3 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#3) | 2.07 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.55 (#2) | 2.73 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#5) | 0.613 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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