Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -3600 UNC +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -15.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -14.2 (+0.8) | 145.1 (-8.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -14.8 (+0.2) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -14.5 (+0.5) | 146.6 (-9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -16.7 (-1.7) | 144.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 – 79 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 18-0 |
| Away | 10-1 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 29.4 (#2) | 16.6 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.02 (#3) | 3.29 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.70 (#1) | 3.70 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#2) | 0.646 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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