Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -213 UNC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -3.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.5 (-8.5) | 149.3 (+13.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.8 (-8.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.1 (-8.1) | 150.2 (+12.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.0 (-9.0) | 148.8 (+14.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#9) | 18.0 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#11) | 2.91 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#7) | 3.85 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#15) | 0.625 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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