Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +360 DUKE -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +13 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -10.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.1 (-3.9) | 152.2 (-1.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.1 (-5.9) | 153.4 (-2.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.2 (-4.8) | 153.9 (-2.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -9.0 (-4.0) | 155.2 (-4.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 – 79 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#37) | 27.7 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#44) | 3.98 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#44) | 5.09 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#26) | 0.651 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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