Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -320 UNC +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -13.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.9 (-6.9) | 148.6 (-3.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -9.1 (-6.1) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.4 (-6.4) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -9.2 (-6.2) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UNC 84 – 79 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 27.4 (#1) | 14.1 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#4) | 2.24 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.19 (#4) | 2.84 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#3) | 0.597 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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