Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -185 CARK +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -2.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -2.9 (-10.9) | 153.8 (+10.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -5.8 (-13.8) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -2.6 (-10.6) | 150.2 (+13.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -2.7 (-10.7) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2025 | LIP 84 – 66 CARK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LIP 85 – 68 CARK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | CARK 96 – 86 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#181) | -0.7 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#164) | -0.64 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#162) | -0.86 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#84) | 0.480 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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