Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -1800 CARK +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +10 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -19.8 (-29.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -15.0 (-25.0) | 151.5 (+30.5) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -14.3 (-24.3) | 154.3 (+27.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -14.3 (-24.3) | 150.5 (+31.5) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -15.2 (-25.2) | 151.0 (+31.0) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | CARK 86 – 78 LIP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | LIP 84 – 66 CARK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LIP 85 – 68 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | -13.8 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#132) | -2.38 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#145) | -2.99 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#131) | 0.372 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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