Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +300 LIP -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -9.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -8.0 (-9.0) | 153.2 (-0.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -8.6 (-8.4) | 151.5 (+1.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -7.5 (-9.5) | 152.6 (+0.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -8.4 (-8.6) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | CARK 86 – 78 LIP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | LIP 84 – 66 CARK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | CARK 96 – 86 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 5-10 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#343) | -0.7 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#322) | 0.15 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#328) | 0.02 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#337) | 0.507 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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