Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -7500 CARK +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +18 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -22.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -19.7 (-1.7) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -18.0 (+0.0) | 144.2 (+5.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -17.7 (+0.3) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -19.3 (-1.3) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | CARK 86 – 78 LIP |
| Feb 27, 2025 | LIP 78 – 60 CARK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIP 68 – 55 CARK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LIP 85 – 68 CARK |
| Jan 19, 2024 | CARK 96 – 86 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-6 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | -12.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#116) | -2.25 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#106) | -2.79 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#94) | 0.397 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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