Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -102 TOL -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -2.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.4 (+1.6) | 145.7 (-1.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.5 (+2.5) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -0.8 (+2.8) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.4 (+2.4) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOL 72 – 69 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#233) | 0.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#225) | 0.15 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#228) | 0.30 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#212) | 0.527 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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