Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TOL +105 JMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -0.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.6 (+3.6) | 145.9 (-4.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.9 (+2.1) | 148.7 (-7.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -0.8 (+2.2) | 151.6 (-10.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.5 (+2.5) | 149.9 (-8.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | JMU 73 – 71 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | 0.7 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#129) | 0.60 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#166) | 0.64 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#117) | 0.563 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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