Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +170 SMU -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +19 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -6.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -5.1 (-13.9) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -5.1 (-13.9) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.3 (-13.7) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.5 (-12.5) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | SMU 83 – 63 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#100) | 15.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#142) | 2.36 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#130) | 3.14 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#180) | 0.613 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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