Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -165 PITT +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -2.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -3.6 (+16.4) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.0 (+16.0) | 151.7 (-5.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -4.0 (+16.0) | 151.0 (-5.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.0 (+16.0) | 153.2 (-7.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SMU 86 – 67 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#41) | 13.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#47) | 1.83 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#49) | 2.22 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#52) | 0.577 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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