Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -218 ALST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +10 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-42.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -4.9 (+5.1) | 142.3 (-38.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -4.0 (+6.0) | 141.2 (-37.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -4.3 (+5.7) | 140.8 (-36.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -5.1 (+4.9) | 141.8 (-37.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | GRAM 56 – 50 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#279) | -11.6 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#261) | -1.74 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#269) | -2.22 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#270) | 0.413 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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