Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -150 GRAM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -3.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.2 (-1.2) | 130.7 (-4.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALST -4.0 (-2.0) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALST -4.5 (-2.5) | 128.3 (-2.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.4 (-1.4) | 129.6 (-3.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | GRAM 56 – 50 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#275) | -9.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#266) | -2.41 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#292) | -3.00 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#219) | 0.427 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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