Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -125 ALST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +12 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -0.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.0 (-11.0) | 135.1 (-29.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALST -0.5 (-11.5) | 133.3 (-27.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALST -1.3 (-10.7) | 130.7 (-24.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.4 (-11.6) | 132.4 (-26.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | GRAM 56 – 50 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#322) | -7.2 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#352) | -1.18 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#351) | -1.98 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#329) | 0.471 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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