Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -138 ALST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +6 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -0.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -1.1 (+4.9) | 132.8 (-26.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -1.5 (+4.5) | 132.1 (-26.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -1.0 (+5.0) | 131.5 (-25.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -1.0 (+5.0) | 130.4 (-24.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#304) | -9.1 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#228) | -1.43 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#249) | -1.89 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#156) | 0.461 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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