Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -142 GRAM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -1.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.5 (-3.5) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.6 (-3.6) | 140.5 (-12.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.5 (-2.5) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.9 (-2.9) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | GRAM 56 – 50 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#320) | -9.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#322) | -1.59 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#323) | -1.96 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#330) | 0.426 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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