Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -195 GRAM +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -6.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.2 (-15.2) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -5.1 (-15.1) | 135.1 (+8.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.0 (-15.0) | 135.1 (+8.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -5.4 (-15.4) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Mar 14, 2024 | GRAM 56 – 50 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | -11.4 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#290) | -3.04 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#301) | -3.90 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#299) | 0.381 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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