Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -600 DRKE +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -10.5 (-0.5) | 140.3 (+21.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.6 (+1.4) | 142.0 (+20.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -11.2 (-1.2) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -10.6 (-0.6) | 140.8 (+21.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | ILST 73 – 56 DRKE |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DRKE 84 – 77 ILST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | DRKE 66 – 62 ILST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | DRKE 77 – 56 ILST |
| Jan 3, 2024 | DRKE 88 – 71 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#75) | 0.3 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#109) | -0.31 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#110) | -0.26 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#96) | 0.489 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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