Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -148 ALA +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -0.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.6 (-3.4) | 167.1 (+20.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.5 (-7.5) | 173.5 (+14.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.5 (-7.5) | 168.6 (+19.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.7 (-6.7) | 167.2 (+20.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | ALA 79 – 75 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#31) | 18.8 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#33) | 3.00 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#25) | 3.91 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.638 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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