Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -175 AUB +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -5.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -5.0 (-1.0) | 156.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.2 (-1.2) | 157.2 (-3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.0 (-0.0) | 156.9 (-2.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.8 (-0.8) | 155.9 (-1.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#5) | 18.5 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#34) | 2.82 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#25) | 3.56 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#19) | 0.634 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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