Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -140 AUB +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -1.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -0.9 (-8.1) | 175.3 (+3.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -0.8 (-9.8) | 174.0 (+5.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.4 (-10.4) | 176.6 (+2.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.6 (-8.4) | 169.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | ALA 79 – 75 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#5) | 26.7 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#2) | 4.96 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.33 (#3) | 6.04 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#2) | 0.706 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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