Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 180.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -340 ALA +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -7.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.9 (-8.9) | 176.6 (+7.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.4 (-10.4) | 180.2 (+3.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -8.9 (-10.9) | 177.5 (+6.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.6 (-9.6) | 180.8 (+3.2) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
| Jan 25, 2024 | ALA 79 – 75 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 26.9 (#2) | 22.3 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.00 (#1) | 3.89 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.97 (#1) | 4.81 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#1) | 0.667 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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