I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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88–40 on winners spread MAE 8.3 128 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ VCU +8.9 146.0 82% 73–99 ✓
Brown @ Yale +18.7 142.8 90% 69–81 ✓
UConn @ St. John's +1.5 143.5 62% 72–81 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +9.3 134.7 82% 63–70 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +1.0 151.9 51% 91–81 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State +10.6 140.8 83% 76–86 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +4.3 130.4 65% 49–61 ✓
Belmont @ UIC -2.3 147.8 42% 68–62 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers -14.6 143.0 13% 80–68 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia +11.7 149.7 87% 59–72 ✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State -6.6 157.4 29% 88–68 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest -7.1 154.3 30% 88–80 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina -4.2 140.9 34% 81–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army +0.6 140.4 54% 63–60 ✗
Wisconsin @ Indiana +4.3 156.0 71% 77–78 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -3.3 138.6 42% 80–73 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State +10.0 155.4 82% 73–82 ✓
Drexel @ Elon +3.9 137.2 69% 82–77 ✗
Oregon @ Purdue +16.7 142.0 89% 64–68 ✓
Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina -0.4 146.2 47% 91–94 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ App State +5.7 126.9 75% 60–65 ✓
Chicago State @ New Haven +5.1 130.4 63% 63–57 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +3.9 150.2 71% 69–78 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +4.2 136.4 67% 67–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne +10.1 147.0 86% 84–86 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI -13.3 143.6 13% 87–70 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina -0.1 149.0 50% 78–59 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -3.9 135.7 38% 88–89 ✗
New Hampshire @ Vermont +6.9 139.1 75% 57–80 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +14.4 155.6 88% 69–72 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State +3.8 135.9 66% 75–74 ✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island +4.8 140.7 72% 77–82 ✓
George Washington @ Duquesne +0.4 155.0 55% 86–88 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +0.5 134.5 53% 70–67 ✗
North Texas @ UTSA -11.5 135.2 14% 81–58 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +6.4 152.1 77% 82–84 ✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross +0.2 139.0 48% 67–76 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +10.8 150.5 85% 74–79 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian +15.5 142.4 90% 62–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +0.4 146.0 50% 94–100 ✓
Butler @ Marquette -1.4 156.1 48% 55–70 ✗
SMU @ Pittsburgh -5.3 143.5 34% 86–67 ✓
Miami @ Boston College -7.2 136.5 20% 74–68 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia +3.6 163.9 68% 88–67 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota +1.6 158.5 61% 98–79 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State +9.4 144.6 83% 84–92 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis +0.1 167.4 55% 74–82 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay +3.6 149.6 69% 63–76 ✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's -0.2 137.0 45% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +10.7 134.0 86% 55–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan -1.0 157.5 50% 68–80 ✗
Princeton @ Pennsylvania +4.6 141.6 69% 60–61 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T -0.2 152.7 49% 79–71 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +6.6 138.4 70% 78–71 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas +9.6 144.6 80% 68–79 ✓
Jacksonville @ West Georgia +0.3 140.5 46% 73–87 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine +0.5 154.5 58% 65–81 ✓
Missouri State @ Liberty +10.7 141.2 83% 76–79 ✓
Utah @ Kansas +17.5 149.4 90% 59–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -4.7 144.1 31% 74–77 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Louis +22.8 147.3 91% 58–82 ✓
Western Michigan @ Texas State +3.5 144.9 67% 61–77 ✓
Kent State @ Southern Miss -2.6 150.9 38% 65–66 ✗
Ball State @ UL Monroe -2.4 137.3 32% 73–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Arkansas State -0.2 145.1 54% 54–91 ✗
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +2.9 149.6 66% 70–80 ✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech -6.2 139.0 23% 78–87 ✗
Oklahoma @ Vanderbilt +15.0 158.2 87% 92–91 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.9 132.0 36% 52–55 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Arizona +17.9 162.1 90% 47–84 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Marshall -0.9 159.2 39% 90–74 ✓
Buffalo @ South Alabama +1.5 140.2 59% 69–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Louisiana +0.3 131.9 48% 80–85 ✓
Toledo @ James Madison -0.8 147.9 47% 71–73 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +9.2 134.7 79% 52–60 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge +7.1 152.0 77% 74–88 ✓
DePaul @ Providence +5.2 151.9 63% 72–90 ✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame +4.7 149.8 69% 82–79 ✗
American University @ Navy +6.2 131.8 77% 73–82 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University +10.6 130.6 85% 54–61 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +1.6 127.0 45% 67–73 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +10.3 142.6 85% 64–73 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +4.9 133.5 70% 49–71 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +6.0 149.7 78% 55–69 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +6.0 153.4 78% 66–77 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +2.7 167.2 66% 96–92 ✗
North Florida @ Queens University +10.2 170.0 87% 72–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin +10.3 132.0 84% 61–55 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock -1.6 131.0 44% 71–61 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +2.4 138.0 58% 60–54 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +7.8 140.4 78% 60–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +13.8 140.0 88% 57–85 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +4.1 143.6 65% 68–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UNLV -4.3 144.7 34% 78–80 ✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +2.5 144.9 63% 72–66 ✗
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +3.0 133.5 60% 47–55 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +0.5 132.3 48% 83–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State +13.5 149.3 86% 56–83 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State -1.1 134.2 37% 71–79 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +9.1 135.3 81% 65–90 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell -4.1 144.6 35% 78–59 ✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +5.7 150.5 75% 62–67 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +0.2 142.1 45% 71–58 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +6.8 161.3 79% 58–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +14.9 142.1 88% 64–81 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +6.1 149.6 76% 88–100 ✓
North Alabama @ Austin Peay +12.8 143.5 88% 62–91 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb +2.7 153.4 61% 86–78 ✗
Alabama State @ Grambling +5.1 141.8 71% 47–57 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +9.1 149.5 84% 76–82 ✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State -4.4 132.0 29% 47–65 ✗
Gonzaga @ Oregon State -15.8 142.8 14% 81–61 ✓
Akron @ Troy -3.8 156.4 33% 69–79 ✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M +3.1 140.8 58% 62–57 ✗
Santa Clara @ Washington State -5.8 151.9 29% 96–92 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +4.2 144.9 67% 68–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton -0.3 134.9 47% 68–69 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +8.1 155.7 81% 68–67 ✗
Mercer @ Samford -1.8 155.1 44% 49–69 ✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin +11.1 137.2 85% 74–84 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Orleans +0.6 147.8 50% 95–76 ✗
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M +2.1 140.5 61% 48–52 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State +0.0 147.7 51% 69–61 ✗
Idaho @ Montana +2.3 144.8 63% 68–73 ✓
Georgia @ LSU -0.0 162.2 47% 83–71 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -6.4 140.9 20% 97–81 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -3.9 142.5 35% 68–71 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.4 146.2 82% 77–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.