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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–43 on winners spread MAE 8.3 128 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ VCU	+8.0	153.8	77%	73–99	✓
Brown @ Yale	+18.6	143.7	95%	69–81	✓
UConn @ St. John's	-0.6	146.8	48%	72–81	✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso	+11.8	136.5	86%	63–70	✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois	+0.3	162.7	51%	91–81	✗
Drake @ Illinois State	+10.7	143.8	83%	76–86	✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa	+5.1	131.6	68%	49–61	✓
Belmont @ UIC	-4.1	152.9	35%	68–62	✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers	-16.4	143.8	7%	80–68	✓
Syracuse @ Virginia	+12.6	151.9	87%	59–72	✓
Arkansas @ Mississippi State	-8.8	165.6	21%	88–68	✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest	-8.7	161.3	21%	88–80	✓
Temple @ East Carolina	-4.7	144.5	34%	81–73	✓
Lafayette @ Army	+0.9	149.5	53%	63–60	✗
Wisconsin @ Indiana	+5.6	160.2	69%	77–78	✓
Villanova @ Georgetown	-6.3	142.6	28%	80–73	✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State	+11.6	161.3	85%	73–82	✓
Drexel @ Elon	+5.1	144.8	68%	82–77	✗
Oregon @ Purdue	+19.2	146.5	96%	64–68	✓
Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina	-1.4	151.5	45%	91–94	✗
Eastern Michigan @ App State	+4.0	127.2	64%	60–65	✓
Chicago State @ New Haven	+5.2	131.4	68%	63–57	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University	+6.3	158.6	72%	69–78	✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut	+4.8	147.4	67%	67–84	✓
Saint Francis @ Le Moyne	+12.8	154.9	88%	84–86	✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI	-17.0	145.7	6%	87–70	✓
Missouri @ South Carolina	+0.1	150.3	50%	78–59	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware	-5.3	135.0	31%	88–89	✗
New Hampshire @ Vermont	+9.2	145.1	80%	57–80	✓
Baylor @ Iowa State	+15.3	158.9	92%	69–72	✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State	+4.5	139.9	66%	75–74	✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island	+4.5	143.2	66%	77–82	✓
George Washington @ Duquesne	-1.8	167.4	44%	86–88	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham	+0.9	138.3	53%	70–67	✗
North Texas @ UTSA	-11.6	133.5	15%	81–58	✓
Kansas State @ TCU	+8.0	156.8	77%	82–84	✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross	+0.3	142.3	51%	67–76	✓
Longwood @ Winthrop	+13.0	157.0	88%	74–79	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian	+17.9	145.1	95%	62–68	✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate	-0.2	152.6	49%	94–100	✗
Butler @ Marquette	-2.2	162.0	42%	55–70	✗
SMU @ Pittsburgh	-6.2	151.6	29%	86–67	✓
Miami @ Boston College	-9.4	141.7	20%	74–68	✓
Cornell @ Columbia	+3.7	179.7	63%	88–67	✗
Denver @ North Dakota	+0.7	166.4	53%	98–79	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+10.9	148.7	84%	84–92	✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis	+2.5	181.6	59%	74–82	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay	+3.8	154.0	63%	63–76	✓
Siena @ Saint Peter's	-1.2	136.4	46%	65–70	✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	+14.9	139.1	91%	55–56	✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan	-1.2	165.8	46%	68–80	✗
Princeton @ Pennsylvania	+5.9	143.4	70%	60–61	✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T	-0.7	161.7	48%	79–71	✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga	+8.9	141.5	79%	78–71	✗
Ole Miss @ Texas	+8.7	149.4	78%	68–79	✓
Jacksonville @ West Georgia	+0.8	141.7	53%	73–87	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine	-0.6	162.5	48%	65–81	✗
Missouri State @ Liberty	+10.1	143.6	82%	76–79	✓
Utah @ Kansas	+20.3	153.3	97%	59–71	✓
William & Mary @ Hampton	-6.2	152.2	29%	74–77	✗
La Salle @ Saint Louis	+26.4	151.1	99%	58–82	✓
Western Michigan @ Texas State	+2.9	147.8	60%	61–77	✓
Kent State @ Southern Miss	-3.2	159.5	39%	65–66	✗
Ball State @ UL Monroe	-2.0	145.3	43%	73–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Arkansas State	-1.9	157.2	43%	54–91	✗
Florida International @ Western Kentucky	+4.1	160.6	64%	70–80	✓
Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech	-7.2	139.9	26%	78–87	✗
Oklahoma @ Vanderbilt	+14.7	164.9	91%	92–91	✗
Mercyhurst @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.4	132.6	49%	52–55	✗
Oklahoma State @ Arizona	+20.2	168.6	97%	47–84	✓
Miami (OH) @ Marshall	-2.9	166.9	40%	90–74	✓
Buffalo @ South Alabama	-0.3	147.2	49%	69–81	✗
Central Michigan @ Louisiana	+1.2	131.6	54%	80–85	✓
Toledo @ James Madison	-2.0	155.3	43%	71–73	✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason	+9.5	139.0	81%	52–60	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+9.3	159.5	80%	74–88	✓
DePaul @ Providence	+7.0	164.6	74%	72–90	✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame	+4.9	154.7	67%	82–79	✗
American University @ Navy	+7.9	136.5	76%	73–82	✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University	+13.2	136.5	88%	54–61	✓
Maine @ Bryant	+1.8	122.1	56%	67–73	✓
Binghamton @ NJIT	+11.3	144.9	85%	64–73	✓
Towson @ Hofstra	+6.3	133.1	72%	49–71	✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook	+4.9	154.5	67%	55–69	✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford	+6.7	160.7	73%	66–77	✓
Alabama @ Auburn	+0.7	178.5	53%	96–92	✗
North Florida @ Queens University	+13.4	183.4	89%	72–91	✓
Morehead State @ UT Martin	+10.7	137.1	83%	61–55	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock	-1.6	131.0	44%	71–61	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+3.3	140.3	62%	60–54	✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+8.7	139.3	78%	60–81	✓
South Carolina State @ Howard	+16.3	143.2	93%	57–85	✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State	+6.5	145.1	72%	68–75	✓
Grand Canyon @ UNLV	-4.2	151.4	35%	78–80	✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State	+3.7	147.8	63%	72–66	✗
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana	+3.9	136.2	64%	47–55	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls	+0.2	137.5	51%	83–76	✗
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State	+17.3	152.6	94%	56–83	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Morgan State	-1.5	140.2	45%	71–79	✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State	+11.8	142.3	86%	65–90	✓
Colgate @ Bucknell	-5.9	146.8	30%	78–59	✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	+7.9	157.3	76%	62–67	✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth	-0.3	144.9	49%	71–58	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+8.5	171.0	78%	58–67	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+16.3	148.8	93%	64–81	✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky	+9.7	154.8	81%	88–100	✓
North Alabama @ Austin Peay	+16.2	144.5	93%	62–91	✓
Central Arkansas @ Lipscomb	+3.1	156.6	61%	86–78	✗
Alabama State @ Grambling	+7.5	146.7	75%	47–57	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+9.2	158.1	80%	76–82	✓
Delaware State @ Coppin State	-3.7	138.5	37%	47–65	✗
Gonzaga @ Oregon State	-21.7	149.5	2%	81–61	✓
Akron @ Troy	-6.1	169.8	29%	69–79	✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M	+3.0	149.1	61%	62–57	✗
Santa Clara @ Washington State	-8.8	158.4	21%	96–92	✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern	+5.3	150.7	68%	68–81	✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton	-0.3	136.6	49%	68–69	✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State	+10.4	165.9	83%	68–67	✗
Mercer @ Samford	-3.7	162.1	37%	49–69	✗
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin	+10.7	136.4	83%	74–84	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Orleans	-0.4	153.3	48%	95–76	✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	+3.3	146.1	62%	48–52	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	-0.1	157.4	50%	69–61	✓
Idaho @ Montana	+3.7	150.7	63%	68–73	✓
Georgia @ LSU	-0.4	172.8	48%	83–71	✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State	-5.5	149.2	31%	97–81	✓
Duke @ North Carolina	-7.1	149.6	26%	68–71	✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+10.2	156.6	82%	77–84	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.