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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–15 on winners spread MAE 7.6 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +2.2 125.1 58% 59–54 ✗
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +1.0 158.1 54% 92–87 ✗
Iona @ Siena +6.5 143.6 72% 72–79 ✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's -2.9 133.1 40% 87–70 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +15.8 140.7 93% 60–75 ✓
Rider @ Marist +17.9 129.6 95% 52–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan -4.7 151.2 33% 80–75 ✓
Chicago State @ Central Connecticut +9.0 145.1 79% 67–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst +11.4 137.6 85% 89–98 ✓
New Haven @ Long Island University +13.1 134.6 88% 55–60 ✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner +0.0 151.9 50% 78–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.3 132.0 58% 58–74 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT +2.3 150.2 58% 56–81 ✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra +11.6 158.6 86% 63–80 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook +2.8 138.5 60% 76–75 ✗
Drexel @ Campbell +1.8 144.9 57% 60–81 ✓
William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington +4.9 155.6 67% 85–78 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +9.2 155.0 80% 62–78 ✓
Elon @ Hampton -2.6 149.1 41% 79–87 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga -8.0 156.7 23% 75–79 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine +6.8 155.7 73% 71–92 ✓
North Florida @ West Georgia +5.6 171.8 70% 81–73 ✗
Jacksonville @ Queens University +8.8 151.7 79% 84–93 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky +0.5 161.9 52% 74–76 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +11.8 164.0 86% 78–71 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota +1.5 152.4 55% 73–76 ✓
The Citadel @ Samford +12.0 147.2 86% 64–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +16.1 143.6 93% 55–68 ✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock -2.5 150.2 41% 79–74 ✓
Ohio State @ Maryland -10.8 156.7 16% 82–62 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +9.8 143.4 81% 72–97 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +13.6 129.2 89% 54–76 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +7.6 151.5 76% 70–82 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +9.1 147.0 80% 68–77 ✓
Memphis @ UAB +1.6 150.2 56% 90–80 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -1.0 152.5 47% 75–85 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +1.9 168.3 57% 88–74 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +9.3 141.8 80% 79–73 ✗
Idaho @ Montana State +4.6 145.5 66% 66–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +8.5 157.6 78% 82–74 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -0.2 136.4 49% 84–87 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +6.2 139.7 71% 71–66 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +9.7 159.0 81% 72–78 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -0.5 177.3 48% 97–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +17.3 144.2 94% 62–78 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +10.9 147.4 84% 74–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +8.3 150.3 78% 55–56 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +15.8 140.9 92% 64–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.