Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UTC +170 MER -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MER -7.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -7.4 (+11.4) | 150.9 (+3.1) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.8 (+9.8) | 150.6 (+3.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.7 (+11.7) | 150.0 (+4.0) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -6.9 (+10.9) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTC 84 – 75 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#300) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#304) | 0.32 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#304) | 0.32 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#310) | 0.552 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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