Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MER -625 UTC +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +4 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -12.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -12.0 (-16.0) | 148.1 (+35.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -9.7 (-13.7) | 147.8 (+36.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -10.4 (-14.4) | 145.2 (+38.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -10.2 (-14.2) | 145.9 (+38.1) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTC 84 – 75 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#159) | -9.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#161) | -1.67 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#166) | -2.07 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#89) | 0.427 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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